It was announced on Sunday by Oregon Live and confirmed by Chauncey Billups that Josh Hart would be the starting small forward to start the 2022-2023 season. This means that Nassir Little and Justice Winslow will start the year in a bench role. After breaking the news, Chauncey Billups did not have anything else to add, so I did some digging into what this means for the offense, the defense, and for the bench as a whole.
First of all, starting Josh Hart from a pure talent perspective is the right move. Between Winslow, Little, and Hart, Hart has the most talent. However, starting Hart means two things: the offense becomes a little better and the defense gives up size. Offensively, Hart provides a scoring punch that the other two don't. In 13 games with Portland last year, Hart averaged 19.9 ppg while shooting 50.3% from the field. And while Josh Hart was the number two option for those 13 games behind Anfernee Simons and was able to put up more shots, he still proved he can get buckets efficiently. Hart makes this starting lineup deeper offensively because now there are 5 legitimate options on the floor.
The issue with starting Hart lies on the defensive side. Hart is a quality defender on his own -- he plays hard-nosed defense and brings energy to that side of the floor. However, Hart is 6'5" and is going to give up a lot of size at the small forward position. This causes concern because we all know the failure of the three guard lineup. The Dame-CJ-Powell era was horrific on the defensive end of the floor. In fact, the Blazers were dead last in the league in 2021 in team defensive efficiency with the three guard lineup. Hart is a better defender than Powell according to RAPTOR (Hart had a defensive RAPTOR of -0.1 while Powell was at a -2.7), but a three guard lineup is still a three guard lineup. We saw the Blazers play porous defense last night and get lit up by the Kings. If the Blazers want to compete this year, the defense has to be sound. I am not sure if a three guard lineup makes this starting group effective on the defensive end --this will be something to monitor as the season progresses.
Ok, so what does this mean for the bench? Well, they are getting two athletic, energetic wings who play extremely hard. The bench has the potential to provide an energy jolt every night when the starters come out. Last year, the Blazers were 25th in the league in bench points, and it always seemed like the bench would give up the lead. This year, the bench is deeper and defensively-minded, which bodes well for this team. We all remember the Simons, Carmelo, and Enes Kanter Freedom trio and how horrible the defense was. When a bench doesn't play any defense, it's demoralizing to everyone because all you do is watch the other team's bench boatrace yours for half a quarter. With Little, Winslow, and Gary Payton II, this should not happen. They are in line to play great defense, and the defensive tenacity might be enough to make the bench a positive asset for this team.
One area of concern for the bench will be the offense. In the NBA, a good bench has 3 components: energy, spark plug scoring, and tough defense. Portland's bench should have two of three, but they will be missing that spark plug scorer. This is the tradeoff for moving Hart to the starting lineup. Hart is the best offensive player and would have thrived in a bench scoring role in my opinion, but Billups believes in making the starting lineup as strong as possible. He believes positioning the bench to impact the game by being energetic, disruptive, and opportunistic will help this team win. Only time and Portland's record will tell if this is a winning strategy or not. But one thing is for sure: this decision will have a large impact on the Blazers' start to the season. Let's hope Billups gets this one right.
Let us know in the comments if you think starting Josh Hart is the right call for the Blazers. Should it be Hart, Little, or Winslow? Also, opening night is 9 days away! Go Blazers!
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