Predicting the Western Conference Standings | Where do the Blazers Fall?

This year, the West is stacked. In my estimation, there are about 10 or 11 teams in the West who believe they can contend for the postseason, which is crazy. This means that the parity will be incredible -- there is not an overwhelming favorite to come out of the West. In Portland's case, many national writers have Portland fighting for a play-in spot. I decided to take a deep dive into each Western Conference team and rank them ahead of the season. Below are my predictions for what the Western Conference standings will look like at the end of the season.

15. San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs will be lucky to win 20 games. Frankly, this team just lacks the talent to compete at all. The Spurs know this as they are in a rebuilding phase under GM Brain Wright -- especially after trading away Dejounte Murray to Atlanta. Once that occurred, the Spurs officially became the worst team in the West. Unlike other rebuilding teams like the Thunder or Rockets, the Spurs do not have a young draft pick who could become a star. With a projected starting lineup of Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, Doug McDermott, Keldon Johnson, and Jakob Poetl, the Spurs are waving the white flag for this year. In all honesty, they are probably tanking for Victor Wembanyama, who is 7'4" but can handle the ball and shoot like a guard. Hopefully, there are better days ahead for the Spurs, but it sure won't be this year.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are on the come up. With a treasure chest of draft picks at their disposal, there is an avenue for Oklahoma City to return the playoffs in the coming years -- just not this year. Their star draft pick, Chet Holmgren, went down with a foot injury that will ultimately cost him the entire 2022-2023 season. The Thunder still have an all star caliber player in Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, but it would obviously take an incredible effort from him to get Oklahoma City out of the basement. Last year, the Thunder were 3oth in the NBA in points per game at 103.7, which won't win you games. They were also 30th in 3PT% as well. Clearly, there was a ceiling on this offence, and I am expecting the same this year.

13. Houston Rockets

The Rockets are in an eerily similar siutation to the Thunder (other than the draft picks). The one thing that Houston has going for them though is they have Jabari Smith Jr. available and healthy. This is the main reason why I'm taking Houston over Oklahoma City. From a roster standpoint, the Rockets have some interesting pieces. The backcourt of Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. is an interesting but talented one -- they both averaged about 16 or 17 ppg last season. I'm very curious to see how coach Stephen Silas utilizes Jabari Smith Jr. on the offensive end -- imagine a Kevin Porter Jr. and Jabari Smith Jr. pick & roll. Porter Jr. averaged 0.82 points per possesion last season on pick & rolls, which isn't horrible. Elite pick & roll guards usually clock in at over 1 point per possession. Maybe Jabari Smith Jr. will help Porter Jr increase his output in the pick and roll. Houston has the potential to be a team that is hyper-athletic and opportunistic -- it will depend on how much they buy in since they are collectively very young. Things are starting to look up in Houston, but they are still a few years away from contending.

12. Utah Jazz

How quickly one offseason can change an entire organization. The Jazz went from the #1 seed in the West to a Western Conference bottom feeder in the span of 3 years. That's how the NBA goes I guess. After trading away Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland and Rudy Gobert to Minnesota, the Jazz have left the talent cupboard bare. Ok, that might be a little harsh. The Jazz still retained some solid NBA players. Mike Conley is a quality point guard although he is getting older. Malik Beasley is a solid 3 and D player while Colin Sexton is a bundle of energy who goes right at you for 48 minutes. They also have Jarred Vanderbilt, who is one of my favorite players in the league -- he provides elite rebounding with excellent defense. While the Jazz have some nice pieces that I mentioned above, this team lacks star power and is entering a rebuilding phase -- 12th in the West seems like the right spot for them.

11. Sacramento Kings

The Kings are in an interesting spot. They have an all-star big in Domantas Sabonis who in 15 games with the Kings, averaged 19 points and 12 rebounds. He knows how to get his numbers. They also have one of the quickest, twitchiest point guards in the league in De'Aaron Fox. However, the Kings have been a dysfunctional franchise for over a decade now, so it's extremely difficult for me to give them a vote of confidence. They also traded their guard of the future in Tyrese Haliburton, which did not make sense to me. If the Kings want to contend for a play-in spot, there has to be improvements on the defensive end. They were 28th in the league in opponent field goal percentage, and they allowed buckets at a 47.9% clip. They also ranked 29th in opponent points per game last season. The defense is horrible and it will hold them back from sneaking into the play-in tournament.

10. Los Angeles Lakers

Man, it feels so wrong putting the Lakers this low when they have Lebron James and Anthony Davis on the team. The Lakers might be the most difficult team to project because Anthony Davis can't stay healthy and Lebron is entering year 20. If they can stay healthy, they can easily be a playoff team, but as we saw last year, injuries can derail them quickly. The Lakers do not have much depth either -- players such as Wenyen Gabriel and Damian Jones could play big minutes for this team. The key to this squad will be Russell Westbrook -- if he can find his Oklahoma City form, this team becomes much scarier. However, I am going to assume that Westbrook will still struggle and the lack of depth for LA will rear its ugly head as the season progresses. They are a play-in team.

9. Timberwolves

Alright, this is my first hot take. Even though the Timberwolves added an all-defensive player in Rudy Gobert to pair with one of the best offensive big men of all time in Karl Anthony Towns, I am saying the T-Wolves are going to be a play-in team. Why? Probably a gut feeling. I can see this prediction blowing up in my face and the T-Wolves win 50 games. But, I am banking on the fact that KAT and Gobert will struggle to co-exist, and they'll get off to a slow start. I am not high on D'angelo Russell as a point guard either nor do I think the depth is as good as advertised. Running a two center lineup in today's game is a risky game, and I am betting that it bites Minnesota rather than elevate their play.

8. Pelicans

The Pelicans are slotting in at 8 here because I don't think they are built to be consistent for 82 games. Zion Williamson is back, but can he stay healthy long enough to truly help this team? CJ McCollum has an elite offensive skillset, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired. Same with Zion. Zion's offensive talent is well-documented, but his defense will need to improve for this team to take the next step. The Pelicans might just outscore teams this year, but on a nightly basis it's defense that shows up more consistently than offense. For the Pelicans to be a lock for the playoffs, they'll need their stars to step up on that side of the ball.

7. Blazers

Putting Portland at 7 might be a reach here. It is possible that the T-Wolves, Pelicans, and even the Lakers are all better than the Blazers this year. But the Blazers upgraded -- they got Jerami Grant, who might become the best Blazer wing of the Dame era. They got Gary Payton II, who plays elite defense. Payton II was 5th in the entire league in defensive RAPTOR rating last year, right behind Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green. RAPTOR is a stat that measures the number of points that a player contributes to team offense or team defense per 100 possessions. The Blazers in the offseason went out and got plus defenders -- gone are the days where the Blazers are last in the league in defensive rating. And then there is Damian Lillard. Lillard is 100% healthy for what he says is the first time in years, so the rest of the league needs to look out. We know how good Lillard is when he is at his peak, and the Blazers will need that form from him this year. Why in the world would anyone count out a Lillard-led Blazer team? Outside of his injury-riddled season last year, Portland has never missed the playoffs under Dame's leadership. I'm trusting Dame again to lead his crew to the postseason. Also, a Blazers-Pelicans, Dame vs. CJ showdown in the play-in game would be electric.

6. Grizzlies

This one is possibly another hot take although ranking the Grizzlies 6th is more of a testament to how stacked the West is rather than how bad the Grizzlies are. And the Grizzlies aren't bad at all. They have arguably a top 5 point guard in the league in Ja Morant and stifling team defense. However, the x factor for this team, Jaren Jackson Jr, is out for at least half the year. He is the engine of the defensive activity for the Grizzlies -- he blocks shots and can pretty much guard anyone in the open floor. Memphis is going to miss him dearly and while the Grizzlies have solid depth behind Jackson Jr, no one can replicate what he can do. Out of 67 power forwards in the NBA, Jaren Jackson Jr. ranked 8th in defensive RAPTOR rating, which sits at +2.3. This means he makes the Grizzlies 2.3 point better per 100 possessions on defense. In addition, he is 12th out of 67 in WAR, which is wins above replacement. All of these stats display how valuable Jaren Jackson Jr. is to the Grizzlies, and it will be key for the Grizzlies to play well while he is absent.

5. Mavericks

Two words. Luka Doncic. He is so great that he will single-handedly lead the Mavs to the 5th seed. I'd go as far to say he might win MVP this season if the Mavericks have enough team success. Luka Doncic was 2nd among all guards in WAR last season with 13.6; the only player he trails is Steph Curry. The Mavericks have done a good job surrounding Luka with players to complement him well. Because Luka led the league last year in usage rate at almost 38%, the Mavericks needed to surround him with capable spot up shooters such as Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock. Dallas also signed Christian Wood in the offseason, who will provide quality offense in the front court. Losing Brunson hurts Dallas a little bit, but Luka Magic will be on full display all season.

4. Suns

The vibes are bad in Phoenix right now. Coach Monty Williams said he hadn't spoken to the players all offseason while Chris Paul said "he learned nothing" from the Mavericks series in the playoffs last year. And oh by the way, they just got beat by the 36ers to open the preseason. Not the 76ers....the 36ers. As in, the Adelaide 36ers from Australia. All jokes aside though, this team is still really good. Chris Paul is one of the best clutch-time players in the NBA while Devin Booker is a top shooting guard in the game. Paul's abiltiy to orchestrate an offense and find mismatches in the late stages of the game makes him so valuable to Phoenix. I do think Phoenix takes a slight step back in the standings this year, but they are still largely the same team to last year's 64 win team. I think they win somehwere between 50 and 55 games this year where they will slot into the 4 seed once the playoffs come around. And who wouldn't want to see a Mavericks vs. Suns rematch in the first round of the playoffs? I sure do.

3. Nuggets

When you have the back to back MVP, you are automatically going to be really good. Nikola Jokic is a special player, and led the entire NBA in WAR last season, and it was not even close. Jokic compiled a WAR of 23.9, with the next closest player being Jayson Tatum at 15.8. With Jokic carving up defenses every night, the Nuggets will also get Jamal Murray back. It is really easy to forget how good Murray actually is -- he had two 50 point playoff games against Utah in the bubble. Denever also has a great bench and coach in Michael Malone. I expect Denver to push for the best record possible while other teams maybe might load manage, which will help them in the standings.

2. Clippers

I would have the Clippers at number 1, but I think they are going to play it safe with their stars -- we know how much Kawhi Leonard likes to rest and load manage. But when everyone is playing, the Clippers are scary. The duo of Paul George and Kawhi might be the best in the league because both have the talent to take over a game. The Clippers defense also projects to be one of the stingiest in the league -- Kawhi and Paul George are elite defenders and players such as Zubac provide solid rim protection. The Clippers also have great depth: with John Wall, Nic Batum, Robert Covington, and Norman Powell coming off the bench. The Clippers are the team with the best chance to dethrone the defending champs which would be the...

1. Warriors

The defending champs get the number 1 spot. Steph Curry is an all-time great shooter and player, and Draymond Green is a proven winner who flat out gets it done on the defensive end. I expect Klay Thompson to bounce back from a rough postseason showing and return to his usual form. Andrew Wiggins had his coming out party for Golden State and solidified himself as a top 10 small forward in the league -- he was 8th in the league among small forwards in WAR. Steve Kerr knows how to hit the right buttons, and I am willing to bet he takes the Warriors to the number 1 seed out West this season.

So there you have it everyone. Leave a comment below letting me know who you think is too high or too low! Hopefully, I am putting the Blazers too low at 7. Only time will tell. Go Blazers!