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Writer's pictureWest Peterson

Game 6 Preview: Lillard-less Blazers Welcome Houston




Trail Blazers vs Rockets

October 28th, 2022 | 7pm PST

Watch: Root Sports NW+, ATTSN-SW, NBA League Pass


Well, that was not ideal. The Blazers lost their first game of the season to the Miami Heat on Wednesday night, getting thrashed 119-98. What made matters worse was Damian Lillard exited the game in the 3rd quarter with what was described as a "right calf strain". Lillard after the game discussed the injury to media saying "it wasn't nothing I was overly concerned with, I just knew it wouldn't make sense to try to push through it in the fifth...game of the season." Lillard also went to say that if it was a playoff game, he would have played through it. Calf strains are fickle injuries, but I trust Dame and his assessment. However, he will miss Friday's matchup with Houston. Houston is a rebuilding team that is more interested in the lottery than the playoffs, so this is a winnable game whether the Blazers have Dame or not. Let's take a look at the keys to the game with Dame being out.


Keys to the Game


1. Guard Scoring


- Outside of Damian Lillard and one supernova quarter from Anfernee Simons, the Blazers have not had a lot of efficient guard scoring. This will be paramount on Friday if Lillard is out. In the latter stages of the 3rd quarter last night, we saw the Heat blitz Simons and effectively shut down the Blazers offense. Simons has struggled shooting to begin the year, and he will need to turn it around against Houston. Lillard has averaged around 30 points per game so far, so there is a 30 point void to fill -- it will take a team effort. Houston is still a young team and is prone to have defensive lapses -- they are 20th in the league in defensive rating. But even if Houston plays good defense, they are a far cry from the defensive talent that Miami possesses on the perimeter. Simons, Sharpe, and even Keon Johnson should have much more space to operate and get their shots off. Simons will need to carry the load offensively, and I'll be watching him carefully.


2. Taking Care of the Basketball


- The Blazers are turning the ball over way too much right now. In fact, the Blazers are turning the ball over 16 times a game, which is 7th worst in the league. I understand that this is a new team, and it takes time for new players to gel with one another. But my goodness, some of the passes last night were just atrocious. Lazy cross-court passes, inaccurate passes, you name it. I can think of at least three different occasions where Miami stole a lazy pass and layed it up on the other end. In the 3rd quarter last night, Miami had 10 points off of Blazer turnovers, and they led by 14 after three -- that was the difference. The Blazers must take care of the ball against Houston because if they don't, they'll let Houston stick around and build momentum just like the Lakers and Heat did. Simons must lead the offense confidently and protect the ball since teams will test him by sending pressure whether it be double teams, hedges, or putting a defensive ball-stopper on him. If Simons can take care of the ball and put his teammates in a position to succeed, then the Blazers will to win this ball game.


Matchup of the Night


Jerami Grant vs. Jabari Smith Jr


The prized free agent of the Blazers against the prized draft pick of the Rockets. Jabari Smith Jr has had an interesting start to his NBA career: he's averaging 14 and 7, but he's gotten into it with his teammates a bit. Chalk it up to being a rookie, but he's had quite a few storylines already. On court, he projects to be extremely solid. He's shooting 35% from three, which isn't that bad, and he's rebounding at a decent clip. However, he'll be lining up against Jerami Grant, who has had a fantastic start to the season. Grant's is one of the best catch-and-shoot three point shooters so far, and he is capable of going and getting his own look. Jabari Smith Jr will have his hands full with Grant, but it will be really intriguing how the rookie handles this matchup. Hopefully, Grant gives him a "welcome to the NBA" moment.


Notes, Injuries, and Updates


  • Damian Lillard (calf) & Olivier Sarr (wrist) are out; Trendon Watford (hip) is doubtful

  • TyTy Washington (knee) & Bruno Fernando (knee) are out; Alperen Sengun (illness) & Kevin Porter Jr (quad) are probable


Betting Tips and Prediction


Betting Record: 4-1

Player Prop Record: 1-3


With Dame being out, it is tough for me to lay the points with the Blazers. The current spread is Blazers (-4), but it's been fluctuating all morning. I'm going to go in a rare direction, and have my betting pick and player prop be the same play, and it's going to be on Josh Hart. I'm a believer in Hart tonight because with no Damian Lillard, Hart will become a second ball handler and get more opportunities to score and get assists. We already know how good Hart's rebounding is, and I expect at least 10 boards from him tonight. I also think Hart can go get 15 points and grab 3-5 assists as well. Give me Josh Hart over points, rebounds, and assists as my play for tonight.


Pick: Josh Hart O27.5 PRA



That will do it for this preview. If the Blazers can win this one, they'll have a nice 5 day break before their next game against Memphis on November 2nd. Let's go Blazers!

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