Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets
October 24th, 2022 | 7pm PST
Watch: NBA TV
When the schedule came out in the offseason, it was fair to assume the Blazers would have a rough record to open the season, with games against Phoenix, LA, and Denver populating the Blazers early schedule. But heading into game 4 of 82 against Denver, Portland is 3-0 and tied atop the Western Conference. A blend of Dame Time, immense hustle, and trusting teammates have gotten Portland to this point. The treat for beating LA on Sunday? A date with two time MVP Nikola Jokic. Let's look at the keys to the game and see what Portland has to do to beat Denver.
Keys to the Game
1. Somehow, someway slow Jokic down
- Jokic is a freak of nature. He's over 7 feet tall and one of the best passers in the entire league. Oh, and he can shoot anywhere on the floor. He is the heart and soul of a Denver squad that comes into the year with high expectations. If you stop Jokic, you stop Denver. Here's the problem: no one can truly stop him. He's that good. That's why I said "somehow, someway" - by any means necessary. There is a silver lining for Portland though: Jusuf Nurkic usually gets up and competes his tail off whenever he faces Jokic. Jokic and Nurkic were teammates in Denver before Denver shipped Nurkic to Portland. Nurkic has always taken these Denver games "personally", and we'll need him to do that again to have any prayer of somewhat limiting Jokic.
2. Simons needs to get it going
- Simons has had a very slow start to the season. He's struggled with his shot and sometimes looks timid when driving to the cup. I'll give him credit though: each game he has made some huge plays such as the floater over Bridges in the Suns game. But we'll need Simons to show why he earned a $100 million contract in this one. Denver has actually had a pretty poor defensive rating of 115.2 so far this season, which puts them 23rd in the league. Portland's guards can score on the Nuggets, and as good as Lillard is, expecting 41 points from him every night is difficult. Simons needs to step up.
Matchup of the Night
Damian Lillard vs Aaron Gordon
Similar to the Beverley and Lillard matchup, this one contains lots of entertainment value. Aaron Gordon is a quality defender and is the player on Denver's roster that is most capable of limiting Lillard. It feels like every time Lillard plays Denver, this happens: Dame cooks in the first half, then Denver adjusts by putting Gordon on him, and Dame still plays well but it becomes a good matchup because Gordon makes him work hard for his buckets. We'll see if Denver decides to place Gordon on Lillard from the tip. If so, it'll be a fascinating matchup to watch.
Notes, Injuries, and Updates
Payton II, Watford, and Sarr all remain out for Portland
Collin Gillespie is out for Denver.
Betting Tips and Prediction
Blazers are 5th in the NBA in defensive rating; Denver is 23rd
Last year, Denver was one of the best first half road teams - they went 25-17-1 ATS
Denver will be favored in this game and for good reason. They have the better roster and come into the game with a rest advantage. The Blazers will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back after after an emotional and gritty win against LA. Denver has the advantage here and at some point the Blazers are going to lose. It might be tonight or it might not. I'm gonna stay away from the game spread for this game and look towards the first half spread.
Pick: Denver 1H -2.5
I'm trusting Ant again. This is the time for him to have a breakout game. I feel like Denver will try to slow down Lillard, and Simons will need to pick up scoring
Player prop: Simons O18.5 points
Make sure to tune in at 7PST for the game! The Blazers are making basketball fun again, and they have a chance to go 4-0. Let's hope they get it done.
Comments