Trail Blazers vs Suns
October 21st, 2022 | 7pm PST
Watch: Root Sports NW+, BSAZ, NBA League Pass
Your Portland Trail Blazers are 1-0! After an exhilarating win against the Kings last night, it is a good time to be a Blazers fan. Jerami Grant led the way with an efficient 23 points, Simons scored 22, Dame scored 20, and Hart chipped in 19. Talk about balanced scoring. The Blazers don't have much time to rest though because the Phoenix Suns are coming to town Friday night. Phoenix is fresh off of a 64 win season last year, and a thrilling comeback win in their season opener against the Mavericks. The Suns are a step up over the Kings in terms of talent, so this will be an early season litmus test for Portland. Let's talk about the keys to the game.
Keys to the Game
1. Jusuf Nurkic
- Let's be honest, Nurkic had a rough game last night. He had 8 points on 3/9 shooting in only 25 minutes. He was on the bench for crunch time as Chauncey Billups elected to go with a small ball lineup. Nurkic needs to flush that game quickly though because a matchup with Deandre Ayton looms. Ayton is one of the premier centers in the NBA due to his ability to play on both ends of the floor. Ayton anchored the third best defense in the NBA last year, and his athleticism allows him to protect the rim effectively and score the ball efficiently. He dropped 18 points and 10 rebounds in the Suns' season opener, so Nurkic will have his hands full. But, if Nurkic can negate Ayton and make him ineffective tomorrow night, Portland will have a real shot, and one way that Nurkic can neutralize Ayton is through sheer force. Nurkic is bigger than Ayton and will need to make Ayton work on the defensive end. This means being physical with Ayton in the post, which means no flip shots! Please no flip shots. Please I beg. Jokes aside, look out for the Nurkic and Ayton matchup as it will be a vital one if the Blazers want to come out on top.
2. Defending Phoenix's Guards
- It was apparent early on that Portland was gonna let the Kings' guards shoot threes, and shoot threes they did. De'aaron Fox poured in 33 points and was 5-9 from three while Kevin Huerter scored 23 points and was 6-9 from three. If anyone's counting, that's 11-18 from three combined. Dame and Ant were a combined 4-18 from three. You would of thought we lost that game if that was the only stat I told you, but the Blazers overcame it. But I'm not so sure the Blazers can overcome it against Phoenix. As good as Fox and Huerter played, they aren't Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Booker has one of the silkiest offensive games in the NBA, and Paul is as savvy as they come. The Blazers will have to key in on Paul and Booker if they want any chance to come out victorious. The Suns love to get Booker moving off ball and coming off pin downs and curls. I'm gonna pull my hair out if I watch Booker come off screens all day and nail midrange jumpers. The Blazers need to come up with a plan to contain both guards -- let's hope Chauncey has an effective game plan.
Matchup of the Night
Blazer Bench vs Suns Bench
The Blazer bench was an integral part of Portland's victory against the Kings -- Justice Winslow and Shaedon Sharpe put in fantastic performances. The Blazer bench combined for 23 points last night yet only 4 players got minutes. On the other hand, the Suns' bench scored 27 points yet had 7 players came off the bench. The Suns' bench was spearheaded by Damion Lee, who scored 11 points and had some huge buckets down the stretch in their game versus Dallas. While the Suns did in fact play 12 guys, only about 8 played meaningful minutes for them. This matchup is going to be key for Portland because the Suns have a better starting lineup on paper -- it would not be surprising to see the Suns starters outplay Portland's starters. But, Portland arguably has the more complete bench as evidenced by all four of their reserves tallying a positive plus/minus against the Kings, led by Justice Winslow posting a +21. The recipe for success against the Kings was stellar bench play especially in the second half, and the Blazer bench will need to have a repeat performance against Phoenix.
Notes, Updates, & Injuries
Gary Payton II, Trendon Watford, and Olivier Sarr remain out for Portland.
Jae Crowder and Landry Shamet are out for Phoenix.
The Blazers only took 28 three pointers versus the Kings. They averaged 37 a game as a team last year. Be on the lookout to see if the Blazers increase the three point looks or if they keep attacking the paint.
Betting Tips and Prediction
Since Paul became a Sun, Phoenix is 6-1 straight up and 9-3 ATS against Portland
538 gives Portland a 40% chance to win, but the Blazers are +170 tonight, which implies only a 37% to win
The line is Suns (-5) and the O/U is 223.5. It is so tempting for me to take Portland outright for this reason: the Suns are gathering 60% of public bets yet the Blazers are getting 53% of the total money. This means less but bigger bets on Portland. I'm not saying Portland wins, but give me Portland +5. It's the safer option. It's the first game in front of the home crowd, and the Suns might have a let down early after their crazy comeback against Dallas. Give me PDX with the points.
Pick: Blazers +5
Alright, player prop time. This one is easy to me. Anfernee Simons was 9-22 and 3-10 from three last game and still put up 22. Phoenix is gonna send their best defender, Mikal Bridges, to guard Dame, so Simons won't have a really tough matchup. Expect Simons to play well in front of a pumped up Moda crowd.
Player prop: Anfernee Simons over 18.5 points
Good luck to the Blazers tonight! Let's hope they show out for the home crowd -- it's going to be exciting. Remember, the game is at 7pm PST on Root Sports NW+ or NBA League Pass. Go Blazers!
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