The Portland Trail Blazers come into this season fresh off of a disappointing campaign in 2021-2022. Because of this, national pundits and fans are predicting the Blazers to be fighting for one of the last playoff spots. It's fair to say that no one is expecting the Blazers to win an NBA title this year....except us here at Rip City Rundown. Just kidding. We aren't expecting a title; that would be asking a little too much. However, we wouldn't be completely shocked. If the Blazers do happen to win a championship in 2022-2023, these are the 5 reasons why.
#1: Health
Let's start with the obvious one. If any team is going to win a title, their impact players must stay healthy for the season. Easier said than done. Portland has been affected by injuries for what seems like forever. There have been plenty of times where injuries have truly altered Portland's season. Some obvious examples include the Brandon Roy-Greg Oden era and last year when Lillard went down. The most compelling example though, is the Nurk injury in the 2018-2019 season. That year, the Blazers were gaining momentum heading into the postseason until the night of March 25th, 2019 when Nurkic broke his leg. This seriously dampened Portland's title hopes and while the Blazers valiantly made it to the Western Coference Finals, missing their center was too much to overcome. This proves that being healthy is a vital factor in winning a title. Just look at the Raptors in 2019. They were a fantastic team, but KD and Klay getting hurt in that series benefited Toronto immensely. If Portland can stay healthy all year, there is no reason why they shouldn't be at least a solid playoff team.
#2: The Defense Must Be At Least League Average
It is not a secret that a key part to a title-winning formula is fielding a competitive defense. In the past decade, every championship team has had a top 10 defense. Here are their defensive ratings: 1st, 10th, 3rd, 5th, 11th, 2nd, 10th, 1st, 3rd, 9th. For the record, that one team that finished outside of the top 10? The Golden State Warriors who happened to have Steph Curry and Kevin Durant on the same team. In the Blazers' case, a lot of things need to be improved from last year's worst-ranked defense in the league. For starters, the point-of-attack defense for Portland must be miles better, and this falls on the shoulders of the guards. Anfernee Simons needs to show he is an improvement over CJ McCollum on the defensive end. In addition, the guards coming off of the bench, which would be Gary Payton II and Josh Hart, need to showcase their defensive talents as well. Payton II will bring the tenacity and switchability on defense, and Hart will bring fantastic team defense. Portland's defense projects to be better this year compared to last year, and guard defense will have a major say on if the defense can be league average or better.
#3: Jusuf Nurkic Must Play Like a Top 5 Center
Jusuf Nurkic might be one of the most polarizing players on the Trailblazers, but every fan can agree on one thing: the Blazers are significantly better when Nurk is engaged and dominating on both ends of the floor. It wasn't a coincidence that Portland was cruising in the 2018-2019 season because Nurk was playing at his absolute best. However, following his devasting injury late that year, he has struggled to regain that form. If the Blazers want to win a title, they need a fully engaged Nurk who is playing efficently. They also need Nurk to anchor a defense that has been soft on the perimeter. Sports Illustrated highlighted this in one of their articles last year: "Portland's defensive rating with Nurkic on the floor is 107.8, per Nba.com/stats, equal to third-ranked Utah. The Blazers allow 10.8 fewer points per 100 possessions when he mans the middle, in the 98th-percentile among all players league-wide, according to Cleaning the Glass." (Sports Illustrated). In other words, Nurkic is a force on the defensive end when engaged. Offensively, Nurkic will need to become a more efficient scorer; he has consistently been a below average finisher at the rim. If he can provide efficient scoring coupled with elite defense, Nurkic has a chance to crack the top 5.
#4: Damian Lillard Must Return to Peak Form
We all know how truly special Damian Lillard is, which is why it was a suprise when he struggled to start the season last year . Before he was eventually shut down with an abdominal injury, Lillard experienced career lows in 3PT%, FG%, and eFG%. Granted, this was most likely because of the injury, but nonetheless, his numbers still dipped signifcantly. We absolutely need to see Lillard return to the peak of his powers where he is bending defenses with his shooting and playmaking. In 2019-2020, Lillard avergaed 30.0 ppg. While 3oppg this year might be asking a little too much, Lillard can average 27 or 28. Dame unquestionably is capable of this, and I'm very excited to see him play now that he is pain-free and coming off extended rest.
#5: Luck
Ok listen. I know what you are thinking: luck doesn't determine if a team wins a title. It's the team who is playing the best at the end will win. Here's the thing though: while it is tough to quantify or even define luck, it exists. It exists related to injuries, and it exists related to playoff path. Let's examine the 2019 Toronto Raptors. Were they lucky that Klay and KD went down with injuries? Probably a little bit. It definitely benefited them at least. In the Blazers' case, "getting lucky" would mean that a contending team in the West got hit with the injury bug. As of right now, the Blazers are at best the 6th-best squad in the West. I will say I am putting this at #5 because it should have the least impact on the Blazers title hopes compared to the reasons above, but it still counts for something.
Honestly, there are way more than 5 things that absolutely need to happen if the Blazers are going to win a title, but these are the most important in my opinion. Here's to Portland having a great season and shocking the NBA world this year. Let us know if you think there is a reason that is super important for Portland!
Would love to see them win a title. It would mean so much to Dame and the city of Portland